Dudziro yemafambiro ekutumira nekuburitsa kunze kwemarobhoti eservo ane mativi matatu

Kuchinja kweMutemo weKutengeserana Pasi Pose: Dudziro yeMaitiro Ekupinza neKutumira Marobhoti eServo Ane Axis matatu

I. Kuchinja kweMutemo weKutengeserana: Munondo une mativi maviri wePasirose Robhoti Mareka

Musika wepasi rose we servo robot une axis nhatu muna 2025 uri kukanganiswa zvikuru nekuchinja kwemaitiro ekutengeserana. Hupfumi hwakasimukira, hunomiririrwa neUnited States, hwakaita shanduko dzakanyanya dzemitemo. Rondedzero yemitero yakaburitswa muna Kubvumbi yaisanganisira zvakajeka marobhoti eindasitiri nezvikamu zvikuru muhuwandu hwemitero yekuwedzera, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwe60% mumirairo yekutumira marobhoti ekuChina kuUS. ​​Mutemo uyu unoramba uchidzvinyirira hondo yekutengeserana ya2018, asi unotarisa zvakanyanya pamasimba eChina munzvimbo dzakadai sekugadzira zvinhu zvine hungwaru. Panguva iyi, Europe iri kugadzira zvipingamupinyi zvekutengeserana zvakasvibira kuburikidza neCarbon Border Tax (CBAM), ichida kuti marobhoti anopinzwa munyika asangane nezvinodiwa zvekushandisa simba zvakanyanya. Mutemo weNorth American CHIPS, nekurambidza kutengeswa kwemachipisi emhando yepamusoro, wakakanganisa kutengeswa kwe Tekinoroji yeRobhotisayenzi ine masisitimu ekudzora akangwara.

Mafambiro emitemo mumisika iri kusimukira anopa mufananidzo wakasiyana. Nyika dziri muBelt and Road Initiative, dzakadai seThailand neIndonesia, dziri kukwezva mari mumidziyo yekuzvishandira nekuita kuti zvibvumidzwe kupinza zvinhu kunze kwenyika zvisabhadharwe mitero. Pakazosvika gore ra2025, marobhoti emumaindasitiri eChina anotengeswa kuSoutheast Asia achawedzera ne32% gore negore, ne ma-servo manipulators ane axis nhatu kuva sarudzo huru nekuda kwemitengo yazvo. Zvinonyanya kukosha, mitemo yakakosha yekugadzira zvinhu nemitengo yakaderera uye zvinokurudzira kutumira kunze kwenyika zvisina muripo zvakatangwa neChina's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology zviri kuumba hurongwa hwemitemo miviri "yekukurudzira kuvandudzwa kwemuno uye kuwedzera misika yekunze," zvichisundira mwero wenzvimbo yezvinhu zvikuru kuti upfuure 45% panosvika kupera kwa2025.

II. Mafambiro Ekutumira Nekutumira Zvinhu Kunze Kwenyika: Pfungwa Yekugadzirisa Musika Iri Kuseri KweData

(I) Kutengeswa Kunze Kwenyika: Kubva paKuvimba Nemunhu Mumwe Chete kusvika pakusiyana-siyana

Mamiriro ekutengesa zvinhu kunze kwenyika pasi rose ari kuchinja zvakanyanya. Misika mikuru yechinyakare iri kutarisana nematambudziko makuru: Mitengo iri kukanganisa musika wekuNorth America, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwe14% mukutenga marobhoti emhando yepamusoro ane Matemo matanhatu kana kupfuura. Kunyange zvazvo marobhoti ane mativi matatu ambozorora kwenguva pfupi sezvo asiri zvigadzirwa zvikuru, kukwikwidzana kwemitengo yawo kwadzikira zvakanyanya nemitero ye25%-35%. MuEurope, yakanganiswa nedambudziko remagetsi nezvinhu zvezvematongerwo enyika, kutenga marobhoti kubva kuChina kunotarisirwa kudzikira gore negore muna 2025, kudiwa kwemarobhoti ekugadzira mota itsva dzemagetsi chete kuri kuramba kuchikura.

Misika iri kusimukira iri kuva kiyi yekubuda mudambudziko iri. Southeast Asia, ichikurudzirwa nekuwedzera kweindasitiri yayo yekugadzira zvibvumirano zvemagetsi, iri kukonzera kuwedzera kwekutengwa kwemarobhoti eservo ane mativi matatu. Kambani inogadzira zvibvumirano zvemagetsi yekuVietnam yakaona kuwedzera kwekutenga marobhoti ne58% pagore muna 2025, 80% yawo aive mamodheru ane mativi matatu. Latin America iri kuona kuwedzera kwe40% pagore mukudiwa kwemarobhoti ane mativi matatu anodhura sezvo kugadzirwa kwezvikamu zvemotokari kuchivandudza otomatiki yayo. Kubva pamaonero ezvigadzirwa, mugove wekutengesa kunze kwenyika wemarobhoti ane mativi matatu akangwara ane gwara rekuona unotarisirwa kukwira kubva pa22% muna 2024 kusvika pa35% muna 2025, uchiva chikamu chine premium yakasimba.

(II) Zvinhu Zvinotengeswa Kunze Kwenyika: Kuchinjana Kwakakurumidzirwa Pakati Pemakwikwi Etekinoroji Yepamusoro

Nyika dzakabudirira dzichiri kutonga pamusoro pezvinhu zvinopinzwa munyika mumusika wepamusoro-soro. Marobhoti eservo ane mativi matatu akanyatsogadzirwa nemazvo anobva kuFANUC yeJapan neKUKA yeGermany, ane ±0.01mm yekugona kwawo kuisa zvinhu, anoita 80% yezvinhu zvinopinzwa neChina muchikamu chekurongedza nekuyedza zve semiconductor. Nekuda kwekubatanidzwa kwavo muhunyanzvi hwekugadzira zvinhu, zvigadzirwa izvi hazvigone kutsiviwa zvizere munguva pfupi. Zvisinei, kuchinjana kwezvinhu zvinopinzwa munyika mumusika wepakati kwawana mhedzisiro yakakosha: panosvika 2025, mwero wekutsiviwa kwezvinhu zvinopinzwa munyika wemarobhoti ane mativi matatu uchasvika 68%, uye chikamu chevagadziri vemasystem eservo emuno chichapfuura 35%. Zvigadzirwa kubva kumakambani akadai seInovance Technology zvatotsiva zvimwe zvePanasonic neMitsubishi.

Mutemo wekutengeserana wave chinhu chinosimudzira kutsiva. Kuisa kweUS mutero wezvinhu zvikuru kwakaita kuti pave ne "kuchinjika kwemitero"—mutero wekupinza zvinhu kunze kwenyika wemidziyo yakazara wakaderera pane wezvinhu, zvichimanikidza makambani kuti akurumidze kugadzirwa kwemuno. Semuenzaniso, kugadzikana kwemutoro wezvigadzirwa zvinoderedza kugadzirwa kwemagetsi zvinogadzirwa munyika kwakawedzera ne40% zvichienzaniswa ne2020, uye ikozvino zvakaenzana nezvigadzirwa zveJapan's Harmony Systems mumusika we3C electronics assembly, zvichiita kuti kuvimba kweChina nezvinhu zvinopinda munyika kudzike kubva pa59% muna 2021 kusvika pa32% muna 2025.

III. Kushanduka kweTekinoroji neMusika Zvinotungamirirwa neMutemo

(I) Kuchinja-chinja kweTekinoroji: Kubudirira Kwekugadzira Zvinhu Zvitsva Kunotungamirirwa neMutemo

Zvipingamupinyi zvemitero uye zvidziviriro zvetekinoroji zvakatowedzera kuvandudzwa kwetekinoroji kwemarobhoti eservo ane mativi matatu. Panyaya yekururamisa kutonga, makambani emuno akawedzera kugona kudzokorora kubva pa ±0.02mm kusvika ±0.01mm kuburikidza nemaalgorithms epachivande, zvichisvika padanho repamusoro-soro. Nezvehungwaru, huwandu hwekupinda kwemasystem ekudzora akapinzwa huchakwira kubva pa31% muna 2023 kusvika pa57% muna 2025, uye mamodheru anotsigira kuongororwa kuri kure uye kudzidza wega achada premium ye30% yekuburitsa kunze kwenyika.

Kuchinja kweGreen kwave mukana mutsva wekukwikwidzana kwetekinoroji. Mukupindura kumitero yekabhoni yeEurope, makambani akatanga mamodheru ane mamodheru eservo anochengetedza simba, achishandisa simba shoma ne25% pane zvigadzirwa zvechinyakare. Vanoshandisawo ma bodies ealuminium alloy anogona kushandiswazve kuderedza kukanganisa kwezvakatipoteredza. Marobhoti aya "ane kabhoni shoma" atove ne18% yeodha muGermany neFrance. Dhizaini yemodular yave yakajairika, zvichiita kuti mamodheru achinjike nekukurumidza kuti agone nzvimbo dzakawanda dzekushandira, zvichideredza nguva yekushandiswa kubva pamazuva manomwe kusvika maviri, zvichiita kuti ave akakurumbira pakati pemabhizinesi madiki nepakati.

(II) Nzira yeMusika: Kubva paKupindura Zvisina Kurongwa kuenda kuNzira dzeKushanda

Makambani anotungamira akagadzira hurongwa hwekupindura mitemo hwakakura. Panyaya yekuisa zvinhu mumakambani, makambani akaita seRoborock neEfort akagadzira mafekitori muVietnam neMexico, achidzivisa mitengo yeUS kuburikidza ne "kugadzira zvinhu munharaunda + kutengesa munzvimbo." Pakazosvika 2025, mitengo yekutumira zvinhu kunze kwenyika kubva kuVietnam kuenda kuUS yakanga yadzikira ne18%. Nezvekuvandudzwa kwemusika, vakagadzira network yebasa remunharaunda yeBelt and Road Initiative, vachigadzira nzvimbo dzekugadzirisa muThailand neMalaysia, vachideredza nguva yekupindura kubva pamaawa makumi mana nemasere kusvika kumaawa masere.

Kuvandudzwa kwemafashoni emabhizinesi kunowedzera kugona kugadzikana panjodzi. Chikamu chemabasa ekurenda chichawedzera kubva pa9% muna 2023 kusvika pa18% muna 2025. Kuburikidza nemapakeji e "hardware + software + maintenance", kambani yakawedzera kuchengetedza vatengi kusvika pa72% mumusika weIndia. Chirongwa che "tiered payment", chakagadzirirwa vatengi vadiki nevepakati, chakadzikisa chiyero chekutenga uye chakawedzera 65% yekutengesa mumusika weBrazil.

IV. Kufanotaura Kwemafambisirwo Egore ra2026 uye Gwaro Remhinduro Dzemabhizinesi

(I) Mafambiro Matatu Akakosha

Mafambiro ekutengeserana ari kuoneka munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana: North America neEurope dzichaumba misika yenharaunda ine zvipingamupinyi zvetekinoroji zvakanyanya, ukuwo Southeast Asia neLatin America dzichava misika iri kukura nekukurumidza. Zvinotarisirwa kuti misika iri kubuda ichave neanopfuura 45% yezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muna 2026.

Kurwira kutonga mitemo yehunyanzvi kuri kuwedzera: Robhoti rekushandira pamwe chete Nzira yekutaurirana inotungamirwa neChina inotarisirwa kuva mwero wepasi rose, zvichipa manipulators ane axis nhatu mukana wekushanda pamwe chete. Kutengeswa kwemhando dzakabatana kunotarisirwa kukura ne40% muna 2026.

Kubudirira muzvikamu zvikuru: Mwero wenzvimbo yemamota eservo nemamota ekuderedza magadzirirwo emagetsi uchasvika 42% ne48%, zvichiteerana, zvichikonzera kudzikiswa kwemitengo yemuchina ne15% uye kuwedzera kukwikwidzana kwenyika dzese.

(II) Mazano Anoshanda Emabhizinesi

Kurongeka kweMusika: Gadzira hurongwa hwe "kuchengetedza musika mumisika yepamusoro yeEurope neAmerica uku uchitora kukura mumisika iri kubuda," uchitarisa nzvimbo nhatu huru: Thailand (kugadzira zvemagetsi), Mexico (zvikamu zvemota), uye Turkey (kugadzirwa kwemidziyo yemumba). Hurongwa hweChigadzirwa: Gadzirisa mamodheru emisika yakasiyana. Kutumira kunze kwenyika kuUS kunotarisa pa "mamodheru epakutanga asingadhuri" kuderedza mitengo; kutumira kunze kwenyika kuEurope kunokoshesa "mamodheru ane kabhoni shoma, akangwara" anosangana nezvinodiwa zvezvakatipoteredza; uye kutumira kunze kwenyika kuSoutheast Asia kunosimbisa "mamodheru akagadzikana uye asingadhuri" akakodzera nzvimbo dzinopisa zvakanyanya uye dzine hunyoro hwakawanda.

Kutarisira Kutevedzera Mutemo: Gadzira nzira inoshanduka yekutarisa mitemo yekutengeserana kwepasi rose, uchitarisa pakutevera kuferefeta kweUS Section 301 uye kugadzirisa runyorwa rweEU CBAM, uye kupedzisa kusimbiswa kwechigadzirwa nekuronga mitengo pachine nguva.